Seeing from the geopolitics/geoeconomics points of view, I have three key trends, or shifts, that define our investment strategies ahead at this time of year-end and year-start.
Three key shifts and trends for investment
First, the shift of priorities from “economy-first” to “security-first” - one big trend best shown by the geopolitical risks in Europe, which was triggered by Russia’s invasion onto Ukraine early 2022, and tensions in other places such as the Taiwan Straits.
Second, the shift from “disinflation” to that of inflation, as the era of “cheap money” or “easy money” has come to an end, at least for some time. Stock markets, among other assets markets, suffered throughout 2022 and still face an unpredictable and highly volatile future ahead. If the markets rebound from the bottom, they would still be largely influenced by inflation and interest rates.
Last, the shift from “globalization” to “blocization” - a trend that concludes the last three decades, during which major powers including the U.S. and China have been collaborating for economic efficiency. Now, the U.S. and other Western economies are speeding up their work to reorganize supply chains, while China, Russia and other countries are getting closer to each other for their own collaboration as an opposing bloc.
Investors should pay a keen attention to and keep these three big shifts in mind for investment strategies, as they would be the deciding factor for the global economy and financial markets in 2023.