Asset market bubbles and crashes recur... ‘Liquidity boom, dangerous signals are coming’
π Summary
Liquidity-driven bull markets and asset bubbles have historically repeated themselves. While the current Korean economy faces serious concerns that economic growth could be stifled by external pressures and internal systemic issues such as inheritance tax, this article provides investors with guidance on how to respond wisely by identifying three warning signals that can help predict the timing of a bubble collapse.
π Why it matters! (Significance and context)
The global economy has endlessly repeated the pattern of asset bubbles forming and bursting under the influence of monetary policy. The current market has entered the momentum phase of a liquidity-driven bull market, which drives short-term stock price increases but carries the warning that a significant correction could occur at any time without the backing of real economic growth. South Korea, in particular, faces structural risks of declining potential economic growth rates due to corporate commitments to US investment, domestic investment stagnation, and tax issues such as inheritance tax. Therefore, it is essential for investors to understand this macroeconomic context, detect risk signals, and build portfolios based on principles learned from financial history.
π₯ Key takeaways
1️⃣ Stages of the liquidity boom and structural risks in the Korean economy
- Diagnosis of the current phase of the liquidity boom: Having passed through stages of hedge finance by global pension funds and Warren Buffett-style value investing, it has now entered a momentum investing phase. A key characteristic is heightened volatility among stocks.
- US Economy's Distinctiveness: Thanks to the economic boom fuelled by the AI Revolution, any recession is likely to feature a shallow and short-lived correction. The conclusion is that US assets should be prioritised for purchase during corrections.
- Concerns Over Korea's Economic Growth Contraction: Large-scale investment commitments to the US heighten the risk of domestic capital expenditure and construction investment contraction. The absence of new investment leads to job losses and reduced consumption, hindering the recovery of the real economy.
2️⃣ Overseas Exodus of the Wealthy and Declining Potential Growth Rate
- Inheritance tax and the adverse effects of comprehensive financial taxation: These drive the wealthy (entities capable of creating businesses and generating employment) overseas. This accelerates the transformation into a country where corporations refrain from investment and consumption, despite corporate profits reaching record highs.
- Criticism of policies defying human nature: Policies prioritising public sentiment while disregarding human desires, such as regional balanced development policies or inheritance tax, are inevitably doomed to fail in the long term.
- Korea's long-term outlook: Achieving a potential growth rate of 3% is judged to be an extremely difficult mission. While the asset market is optimistic due to liquidity, the Korean economy itself may be pessimistic.
3️⃣ Prospects for capital shifting from property to stocks and the dilemmas of VVIPs
- Speed of capital movement: It is anticipated that the flow of money from the property market into the stock market will take a long time.
- Limitations of Korean property: At the global level, Korea's most expensive apartments fail to satisfy the aesthetic and asset parking functions of first-class assets. Consequently, the top-tier VVIP (financial assets exceeding 100 billion won) class is highly likely to choose emigration for tax and aesthetic reasons.
- Difficulty of mass capital movement: While a strong housing demand segment exists among the middle class (e.g., high-income workers), making mass movement difficult, VVIP assets are likely to flow into the stock market due to factors like the relaxation of major shareholder requirements.
4️⃣ Liquidity Boom Peak Signals (Three Fox Trading Indicators)
- IPO (Initial Public Offering) Explosion: Owners selling existing shares (old stock) or diluting holdings through new share issuance. This has already commenced in the US market, with Korea also anticipating a wave of major new listings soon.
- Narrative and FOMO: A period marked by incitement along the lines of ‘I can't understand why anyone wouldn't do this,’ accompanied by account verification relays (similar to the influencer-driven stock movements seen in the GameStop situation).
- Inflation Becomes Apparent: The period when inflation becomes distinctly palpable to the general public.
5️⃣ Three Essential Principles for Long-Term Investment
- Avoid All-In Investments: To prevent irreversible situations, never invest your entire fortune through probabilistic thinking.
- Invest in Assets That Move Counter-Cycle: Include insurance assets like gold in your portfolio. Gold rose by an average of 30% during the Nasdaq's dreadful correction.
- Prioritise Indirect Experience: Lessons need not be learned through bloodshed. Read books on financial historyto accumulate indirect experience.
π To summarise
The current market is in a momentum phase of a liquidity-driven bull market, strongly exhibiting the characteristics of an asset bubble. While stock price increases may persist in the short term, the Korean economy is losing its economic growth momentum due to external investment burdens and rigid domestic systems (inheritance tax issues, responsibility management that undermines capitalist order), making it difficult to achieve a potential growth rate of 3%. Systems like inheritance tax, in particular, drive the wealthy overseas, creating the adverse effect of shrinking domestic investment and employment.
Regarding investment, three key signals of a market peak must be closely monitored: IPO explosions, market movements driven by narratives, and inflation becoming pronounced. Long-term, adhering to three principles is essential to reduce the probability of failure and enable probabilistic investment: avoid all-in bets, insure against risk with counter-cyclical assets like gold, and acquire indirect experience through studying financial history.
π° Investment Advice
- Avoid all-in investments: As the end of a liquidity boom is difficult to predict, maintain a cash allocation and avoid all-in investments to prevent irreversible losses at any time.
- Include insurance assets: Prepare for market corrections by including assets like gold in your portfolio that move inversely to the stock market.
- Preference for US Stocks: Prepare to prioritise buying in the US market, which is expected to recover more rapidly due to the AI revolution when the next recession or correction arrives.
- Monitor Warning Signs: Exercise extreme caution with investments and consider selling when signs emerge: explosive growth in US and Korean IPO markets, sharp share price rises driven by account verification and thematic narratives, and widespread tangible inflation (clear inflationary pressures).
π·️ Keywords
#LiquidityBoom #AssetBubble #EconomicGrowth #InheritanceTax #HistoryOfFinance #IPO #MomentumInvesting #GoldInvestment #VVIP #PotentialGrowthRate
μμ° μμ₯μ κ±°νκ³Ό λΆκ΄΄λ λ°λ³΅λλ€... "μ λμ± μ₯μΈ, μνν μ νΈκ° μ¨λ€"
π νμ€μμ½
μ λμ± μ₯μΈμ μμ° κ±°νμ μμ¬μ μΌλ‘ λ°λ³΅λμ΄ μμΌλ©°, νμ¬ νκ΅ κ²½μ λ λμΈμ μΈ μλ ₯κ³Ό μμμΈ λ±μ λ΄λΆ μμ€ν μ λ¬Έμ λ‘ μΈν΄ κ²½μ μ±μ₯μ΄ μμΆλ μ μλ€λ μ¬κ°ν μ°λ €λ₯Ό μκ³ μμ§λ§, κ±°ν λΆκ΄΄ μμ μ μμΈ‘νλ μΈ κ°μ§ κ²½κ³ μ νΈλ₯Ό ν΅ν΄ ν¬μμκ° νλͺ νκ² λμν μ μλ μ§μΉ¨μ μ 곡νλ€.
π μ μ€μνκ°! (μλ―Έμ λ§₯λ½)
μΈκ³ κ²½μ λ ν΅ν μ μ± μ μν₯μΌλ‘ μμ° κ±°νμ΄ μμ±λκ³ λΆκ΄΄νλ ν¨ν΄μ λμμμ΄ λ°λ³΅ν΄ μλ€. νμ¬ μμ₯μ μ λμ± μ₯μΈμ λͺ¨λ©ν κ΅λ©΄μ μ§μ νμΌλ©°, μ΄λ λ¨κΈ°μ μΈ μ£Όκ° μμΉμ μ΄λμ§λ§, μ€λ¬Ό κ²½μ μ±μ₯μ λ·λ°μΉ¨ μμ΄λ μΈμ λ ν° νμ μ‘°μ μ΄ μ¬ μ μλ€λ κ²½κ³ λ₯Ό λ΄ν¬νλ€. νΉν νκ΅μ κΈ°μ μ λλ―Έ ν¬μ μ½μ, κ΅λ΄ ν¬μ μμΆ, κ·Έλ¦¬κ³ μμμΈμ κ°μ μΈμ λ¬Έμ λ‘ μΈν΄ μ μ¬ κ²½μ μ±μ₯λ₯ νλ½μ΄λΌλ ꡬ쑰μ μνμ μ§λ©΄ν΄ μλ€. λ°λΌμ ν¬μμλ€μ μ΄λ¬ν κ±°μ κ²½μ μ λ§₯λ½μ μ΄ν΄νκ³ , μν μ νΈλ₯Ό κ°μ§νλ©°, κΈμ΅μ μμ¬μμ λ°°μ΄ μμΉμ κΈ°λ°μΌλ‘ ν¬νΈν΄λ¦¬μ€λ₯Ό ꡬμΆνλ κ²μ΄ νμμ μ΄λ€.
π₯ ν΅μ¬ ν¬μΈνΈ (Key takeaways)
1️⃣ μ λμ± μ₯μΈμ λ¨κ³μ νκ΅ κ²½μ μ ꡬ쑰μ μν
μ λμ± μ₯μΈμ νμ¬ κ΅λ©΄ μ§λ¨: κΈλ‘λ² μ°κΈ°κΈμ ν·μ§ κΈμ΅, μλ λ²ν μ νμ λ°Έλ₯ μΈλ² μ€νΈ λ¨κ³λ₯Ό μ§λ λͺ¨λ©ν μΈλ² μ€νΈ κ΅λ©΄μ μ§μ ν¨. μ’ λͺ©λ€μ λ³λμ±μ΄ 격νλλ κ²μ΄ μ£Όμ νΉμ§.
λ―Έκ΅ κ²½μ μ νΉμμ±: AI νλͺ μ΄λΌλ νλͺ μ΄ μλ κ²½κΈ° νλ λλΆμ λΆν©μ΄ μ€λλΌλ μ‘°μ νμ΄ μ§§κ³ κΈ°κ°μ΄ μ§§μ κ°λ₯μ±μ΄ λμ. μ‘°μ μ λ―Έκ΅ μμ° λ§€μκ° μ°μ λμ΄μΌ νλ€λ κ²°λ‘ .
νκ΅μ κ²½μ μ±μ₯ μμΆ μ°λ €: λκ·λͺ¨ λλ―Έ ν¬μ μ½μμΌλ‘ μΈν κ΅λ΄ μ€λΉ ν¬μ λ° κ±΄μ€ ν¬μ μμΆ κ°λ₯μ±μ΄ λμ. μ κ· ν¬μ λΆμ¬λ μΌμ리 κ°μμ μλΉ μμΆμΌλ‘ μ΄μ΄μ Έ μ€λ¬Ό κ²½μ ν볡μ μ ν΄ν¨.
2️⃣ λΆμλ€μ ν΄μΈ μ΄νκ³Ό μ μ¬ μ±μ₯λ₯ νλ½
μμμΈμ κΈμ΅μ’ ν©κ³ΌμΈμ λΆμμ©: λΆμλ€(μ°½μ , κ³ μ© μ λ° μ¬λ ₯ μλ 주체)μ ν΄μΈλ‘ μ«μλ΄λ κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό λ³μ. μ΄λ κΈ°μ μ΄μ΅μ΄ μ¬μ μ΅λμΉμμλ λΆκ΅¬νκ³ ν¬μ λ° μλΉλ₯Ό μ νλ λλΌλ‘μ μ νμ κ°μνν¨.
μΈκ° λ³Έμ±μ κ±°μ€λ₯΄λ μ μ± λΉν: μ§μ κ· ν λ°μ μ μ± μ΄λ μμμΈμ κ°μ΄ κ΅λ―Ό κ°μ μ μ€μνλ©° μΈκ°μ μλ§μ 무μν μ μ± μ μ₯κΈ°μ μΌλ‘ μ€ν¨ν μλ°μ μμ.
νκ΅μ μ₯κΈ° μ λ§: μ μ¬ μ±μ₯λ₯ 3% λ¬μ±μ λ§€μ° μ΄λ €μ΄ λ―Έμ μΌλ‘ νλ¨ν¨. μμ° μμ₯μ μ λμ± λλ¬Έμ λκ΄μ μ΄λ, νκ΅ κ²½μ μ체λ λΉκ΄μ μΌ μ μμ.
3️⃣ λΆλμ°μμ μ£ΌμμΌλ‘μ μκΈ μ΄λ μ λ§κ³Ό VVIPμ κ³ λ―Ό
μκΈ μ΄λ μλ: λΆλμ° μμ₯μ λμ΄ μ£Όμ μμ₯μΌλ‘ μ μ λλ κ²μ μ€λ 걸릴 κ²μΌλ‘ μμ.
νκ΅ λΆλμ°μ νκ³: κΈλ‘λ² λ 벨μμ νκ΅μ μ΅κ³ κ° μννΈλ μΌλ₯ μμ°μ λ―Ένμ , μμ ννΉ κΈ°λ₯μ λ§μ‘±μν€μ§ λͺ»ν¨. μ΄λ‘ μΈν΄ μ΅μμ VVIP(κΈμ΅μμ° 100μ΅ μ΄μ) κ³μΈ΅μ μΈκΈ λ° λ―Ένμ μ΄μ λ‘ μ΄λ―Όμ μ νν κ°λ₯μ±μ΄ λμ.
λμ€μ μκΈ μ΄λμ μ΄λ €μ: μ€μ°μΈ΅μ κ°λ ₯ν μ£Όν μμμΈ΅(μ: κ³ μλ κ·Όλ‘μ)μ΄ μ‘΄μ¬νμ¬ λ§€μ€ λ¬΄λΈλ¨ΌνΈλ μ΄λ ΅μ§λ§, VVIP μμ°μ λμ£Όμ£Ό μ건 μν λ±μΌλ‘ μΈν΄ μ£Όμ μμ₯μΌλ‘ μ μ λ κ°λ₯μ±μ΄ μμ.
4️⃣ μ λμ± μ₯μΈμ κ³ μ μ νΈ (νμ€ νΈλ μ΄λ© μ§ν 3κ°μ§)
IPO (κΈ°μ 곡κ°) νλ°: μ€λλ€μ΄ μ§λΆ(ꡬ주)μ νκ±°λ μ μ£Ό λ°νμΌλ‘ ν¬μνλ νμ. λ―Έκ΅ μμ₯μμ μ΄λ―Έ μμλμμΌλ©° νκ΅λ κ³§ λλμ μΈ μ κ· μμ₯ 곡λͺ¨κ° μμλ¨.
λ€λ¬ν°λΈ(Narrative)μ FOMO: "μ μ΄κ±Έ μ νλμ§ λͺ¨λ₯΄κ² λ€"λ μμ μ λμ΄ λμ€κ³ , κ³μ’ μΈμ¦ 릴λ μ΄κ° λ²μ΄μ§λ μκΈ° (κ²μμ€ν μ¬νμ μ μ¬ν μΈν루μΈμ λ° μ£Όκ° μμ§μ).
μΈνλ μ΄μ νμ°: μΈνλ μ΄μ μ΄ λμ€μκ² νμ°νκ² μ²΄κ°λλ μκΈ°.
5️⃣ μ₯κΈ° ν¬μλ₯Ό μν 3κ°μ§ νμ μμΉ
μ¬μΈ κΈμ§: νλ³΅μ΄ μ λλ μν©μ λ§κΈ° μν΄ νλ₯ μ μ¬κ³ λ₯Ό ν΅ν΄ μ λλ‘ μ μ¬μ°μ ν¬μνμ§ μλλ€.
λ°λλ‘ μμ§μ΄λ μ¬μ° ν¬μ: κΈ(Gold)κ³Ό κ°μ 보ν μμ°μ ν¬νΈν΄λ¦¬μ€μ νΈμ νλ€. κΈμ λμ€λ₯μ λμ°ν μ‘°μ μκΈ°μ νκ· 30% μμΉνμ.
κ°μ κ²½ν μ€μ: νΌλ₯Ό νλ €μΌλ§ κ΅νμ μ»λ κ²μ μλ. κΈμ΅μ μμ¬λ₯Ό λ€λ£¬ μ± μ μ½κ³ κ°μ κ²½νμ μλλ€.
π μ 리νλ©΄
νμ¬μ μμ₯μ ν΅ν μ μ± μ΄ μ£Όλνλ μ λμ± μ₯μΈμ λͺ¨λ©ν κ΅λ©΄μ μμΌλ©°, μ΄λ μμ° κ±°νμ μ±κ²©μ κ°νκ² λ€λ€. λ¨κΈ°μ μΌλ‘λ μ£Όκ° μμΉμ΄ μ§μλ μ μμΌλ, νκ΅ κ²½μ λ λμΈ ν¬μ λΆλ΄κ³Ό κ΅λ΄μ κ²½μ§λ μμ€ν (μμμΈ λ¬Έμ , μλ³Έμ£Όμ μ§μ νκ΄΄μ μ± μ κ²½μ)μΌλ‘ μΈν΄ κ²½μ μ±μ₯ λλ ₯μ μκ³ μ μ¬ μ±μ₯λ₯ 3%λ₯Ό λ¬μ±νκΈ° μ΄λ €μ΄ μν©μ΄λ€. νΉν μμμΈμ κ°μ μ λλ λΆμλ€μ ν΄μΈλ‘ λ΄λͺ°μ κ΅λ΄ ν¬μμ κ³ μ©μ μμΆμν€λ λΆμμ©μ λ³λλ€.
ν¬μμ μμ΄μλ IPO νλ°, λ€λ¬ν°λΈμ μν μμ₯ μμ§μ, μΈνλ μ΄μ νμ°μ΄λΌλ μΈ κ°μ§ κ³ μ μ νΈλ₯Ό μ£Όμν΄μΌ νλ€. μ₯κΈ°μ μΌλ‘λ μ¬μΈ κΈμ§, κΈκ³Ό κ°μ μλ°©ν₯ μμ°μΌλ‘ 보ν λ€κΈ°, κ·Έλ¦¬κ³ κΈμ΅μ μμ¬ κ³΅λΆλ₯Ό ν΅ν κ°μ κ²½ν μ΅λμ΄λΌλ μΈ κ°μ§ μμΉμ λ°λμ μ§μΌμΌλ§ κ½(μ€ν¨)μ μ‘μ νλ₯ μ μ€μ΄κ³ νλ₯ μ ν¬μκ° κ°λ₯ν΄μ§λ€.
π° ν¬μ μ‘°μΈ
μ¬μΈ ν¬μ κΈμ§: μ λμ± μ₯μΈμ λμ μμΈ‘νκΈ° μ΄λ €μ°λ―λ‘, μΈμ λ νλ³΅μ΄ λΆκ°λ₯ν μμ€μ νΌνκΈ° μν΄ νκΈ λΉμ€μ ν보νκ³ μ¬μΈ ν¬μλ₯Ό νΌν¨.
보ν μμ° νΈμ : ν¬νΈν΄λ¦¬μ€μ κΈ(Gold) λ± μ£Όμ μμ₯κ³Ό λ°λλ‘ μμ§μ΄λ μμ°μ ν¬ν¨νμ¬ μμ₯ μ‘°μ κΈ°μ λλΉν¨.
λ―Έκ΅ μ£Όμ μ νΈ: λ€μ λΆν©μ΄λ μ‘°μ κΈ°κ° μμ λ, AI νλͺ μΌλ‘ μΈν΄ ν볡 μλκ° λΉ λ₯Ό κ²μΌλ‘ μμλλ λ―Έκ΅ μμ₯λΆν° μ°μ μ μΌλ‘ λ§€μν μ€λΉλ₯Ό ν¨.
κ²½κ³ μ νΈ μ£Όμ: λ―Έκ΅ λ° νκ΅μ IPO μμ₯ νλ°, κ³μ’ μΈμ¦ λ° ν λ§μ± λ€λ¬ν°λΈμ μν μ£Όκ° κΈλ±, κ·Έλ¦¬κ³ λ¬Όκ° μμΉμ κ΄λ²μν 체κ°(μΈνλ μ΄μ νμ°) μκΈ°κ° λ€κ°μ€λ©΄ ν¬μμ κ·Ήλλ‘ μ‘°μ¬νκ³ λ§€λ μμ μ κ³ λ €ν¨.
π·️ ν€μλ
#μ λμ±μ₯μΈ #μμ°κ±°ν #κ²½μ μ±μ₯ #μμμΈ #κΈμ΅μμμ¬ #IPO #λͺ¨λ©ν ν¬μ #κΈν¬μ #VVIP #μ μ¬μ±μ₯λ₯
π¨μ£Όμ: μ΄ λΈλ‘κ·Έ μλ£λ μ μκΆμ μν΄ λ³΄νΈλ©λλ€. λΈλ‘κ·Έμμ λ€λ£¨λ λ΄μ©μ ν¬μ κΆμ λ₯Ό λͺ©μ μΌλ‘ νμ§ μμΌλ©°, νΉμ κΈμ΅ μνμ λ§€μ λλ λ§€λλ₯Ό κΆμ₯νμ§ μμ΅λλ€. ν¬μ κ²°μ μ μ μ μΌλ‘ λ³ΈμΈμ μ± μ νμ μ΄λ£¨μ΄μ ΈμΌ νλ©°, μ΄ λΈλ‘κ·Έμμ μ± μμ§μ§ μμ΅λλ€.